Attacks on key natural gas facilities in the Middle East are reshaping the global energy map in real time. It is an offensive targeting hubs, where the energy that sustains entire economies is produced, processed, and transported—and whose effects are already reflected in prices, routes, and supply expectations, experts warn.
The most significant blow is occurring in South Pars, the world’s largest gas field. This gas reservoir, shared with Qatar, holds nearly 20% of global natural gas reserves and, on the Iranian side, has a capacity exceeding 700 million cubic meters per day. The attack does not necessarily target the wells; rather, it is aimed at the infrastructure that enables the flow of the hydrocarbon.
Adrián Calcáneo, vice president of Energy & Feedstocks at OPIS, warns that this is where the real risk lies. Production may continue, but without functional infrastructure, the gas does not reach the market.
“Rebuilding these facilities is not an immediate process. It can take months or years, creating bottlenecks that put pressure on agreements and prices on a global scale,” he warns.
Qatar has built its global LNG leadership on this asset. Today it exports more than 77 million tons annually, with expansion plans exceeding 110 million tons per year (MTPA). All this capacity converges at Ras Laffan Industrial City, where liquefaction trains and export networks to Asia and Europe operate.
Force Majeure
Meanwhile, the state-owned company QatarEnergy recently invoked force majeure in some of its long-term LNG supply agreements, which will prevent it from fulfilling its contractual obligations to customers such as Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
Saad al-Kaabi, the company’s director, stated that an Iranian attack on the Ras Laffan gas plant in Qatar destroyed approximately 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, resulting in an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue and jeopardizing supplies to Europe and Asia.
Despite extensive damage and major fires in Ras Laffan, no casualties were reported, and emergency crews moved quickly to contain the situation.
“There are countries that are entirely dependent on natural gas from that region; therefore, we will see price increases for both basic and luxury consumer goods, driven by the price hikes caused by the war,” says Lyndsay Garnica, an expert in major risks in the air and maritime sectors.
Another risk is materializing in the Strait of Hormuz, the most sensitive point in global energy trade. About 20% of the world’s oil and between 20% and 25% of LNG pass through there. More than 100 energy vessels used to cross this corridor daily.
“The closure of Hormuz is symbolic, because there are no actual barriers blocking passage, but restrictions on maritime navigation and the instability caused by the war are affecting the flow of ships carrying goods, including liquefied natural gas,” explains Garnica.
In the eastern Mediterranean, the pressure is being felt on a more limited, but equally strategic infrastructure.
The Leviathan and Tamar platforms have experienced temporary shutdowns for security reasons. Although Israel is not a dominant player on a global scale, its gas is key to the regional balance because the flows to Egypt and Jordan depend on these platforms.
This link impacts the operations of the Idku and Damietta terminals, with capacities of 7.2 and 5 MTPA, respectively. Egypt’s dependence on Israeli gas is such that, in the event of production stoppages, the country is forced to suspend exports or even import gas for domestic consumption. The resulting LNG shortage in the Mediterranean basin strains supplies to Europe, exacerbating energy vulnerability during the winter.
For Lindsay Garnica, the rising cost of energy sources such as natural gas, stemming from the war, will directly impact both populations in resource-poor countries and developed nations; an economic pressure that ultimately triggers social discontent.
“It’s something that’s happening everywhere. Norway, for example, had very low electricity rates years ago, and now they’ve become quite expensive, which is generating a wave of discontent not seen in decades, and that’s what we’re going to see in this scenario,” she concludes.
